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在铝行业格局中，氧化铝作为电解铝关键上游原料，其产能变化影响产业链走向。近年，氧化铝产能快速扩张，引发是否需设“天花板”的思考。

全球范围内，各国加大氧化铝投入。我国作为最大生产与消费国，近十年产能增幅达45%，2024年占全球产量56%，建成产能1.03亿吨，且新建项目不断。海外氧化铝项目建设也势头正盛。

产能快速扩张背后，一方面，前些年可观利润吸引大量资本；另一方面，企业对市场前景盲目乐观，未充分考量实际需求、资源可持续性及竞争格局变化，导致产能无序扩张。

产能过剩给铝行业带来诸多挑战。供给侧开工率不足，投资浪费严重。2024年我国氧化铝开工率81%，近两成产能闲置，影响企业资金周转与再投资。

从矿产资源看，产能扩张使铝土矿需求大增，我国对外依存度达57%，过度依赖进口面临供应风险。市场上供大于求致价格下跌，2025年第一季度主力合约大跌38.80%，企业利润压缩。

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