Indonesia’s nickel ore imports from the Philippines surged significantly in 2025. According to Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data, import volume reached 15.33 million tons, valued at US$725.17 million, a year-over-year increase of approximately 5 million tons. This surge coincided with domestic nickel ore supply constraints and the government’s plan to restrict nickel production in 2026 via RKAB (Work and Budget Plan) approval enforcement.

Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) Advisory Board Member Djoko Widajatno noted the import spike stemmed from RKAB implementation delays in 2024–2025, impacting production realization. Despite last year’s RKAB nickel quota of ~379 million wet tons, actual production was estimated at ~250 million wet tons due to weather and licensing hurdles.

Domestic nickel ore demand for processing facilities far exceeds supply: Djoko highlighted 49 operating RKEF (Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace) smelters and six HPAL (High Pressure Acid Leaching) units. RKEF requires 350 million wet tons annually, HPAL 105 million wet tons, totaling 455 million wet tons.

“Feedstock shortages forced smelters to import from the Philippines,” Djoko told Kontan on 8/2/2026. He warned future RKAB restrictions could cause systemic risks, including smelter operational sustainability issues and economic impacts on mining communities.

On the other hand, import options face limitations due to constrained global supply, with nickel ore prices from New Caledonia, Russia, Australia, or Canada relatively higher. Indonesia Nickel Industry Association (FINI) Chairman Arif Perdana Kusumah added that total 2025 processing and refining capacity demand is ~300 million wet tons, while approved RKAB targets ~364 million wet tons.

Actual 2025 production is estimated at ~275 million wet tons due to capacity expansion challenges, small miner constraints, rainy seasons, and operational licensing delays (e.g., PPKH, pertek, SLO). By 2026, total processing/refining capacity could reach ~2.7 million tons of Class 1–2 nickel, Arif projected. With this expansion, 2026 nickel ore demand is expected to rise to 340–350 million wet tons, a 40–50 million wet ton increase from 2025.

If RKAB restricts production to ~250 million ...