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节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：8/10
2025 年 10 月，印尼动力煤出口量温和复苏，环比增长 1.6%，从 9 月的 3199 万吨增至 3251 万吨。此次回升得益于亚洲需求韧性及物流改善。不过，与 2024 年同期相比，出口量下降 4.6%，全球工业产出放缓与环保政策收紧，致使煤炭消费逐步降温。
2025 年 1 月至 10 月，印尼动力煤出口总量为 2.992 亿吨，同比下滑 9%。海外需求疲软，亚洲买家因发电量降低、可再生能源使用增加及成本优化减少进口，促使印尼矿商调整产量与定价策略。
10 月，亚洲主要买家需求呈现区域性分化。印度因库存充足与工业需求疲软，进口量环比大幅下降 22.6%至 700 万吨，电厂消耗现有库存。中国在电力消费稳定及冬季备货支撑下，进口量微增 1.3%至 792 万吨。马来西亚因工业活动稳固及印尼报价有竞争力，进口量攀升 15%ȇ..
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Given the increasing use of renewable energy in Asian countries, will the long – term demand for Indonesian thermal coal continue to decline? Although there was a slight recovery in exports in October 2025, factors like global industrial slowdown and tightened environmental policies are already affecting coal consumption. Also, with countries like India having sufficient inventory and China’s relatively stable procurement, can Indonesian coal miners really adjust their strategies effectively to maintain stable exports? And considering the competition from renewable energy, how long can the so …