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节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：4/10
一、加沙地带冲突进展
- 停火协议脆弱性凸显
- 11月7日，以色列与哈马斯在埃及斡旋下达成第二阶段停火协议，允许更多人道物资进入加沙。但8日凌晨，加沙南部汗尤尼斯遭以军空袭，造成至少12名平民死亡。哈马斯称以方违反协议，威胁恢复火箭弹袭击。
- 人道危机：联合国报告显示，加沙90%人口面临饥荒风险，约旦、埃及今日增派30辆物资卡车经拉法口岸入境。
- 周边国家政策应对
- 埃及：总统塞西宣布开放阿里什港作为国际援助中转枢纽，同时要求以色列保证边境安全。
- 伊朗：最高领袖哈梅内伊呼吁穆斯林国家”切断与以色列的经济纽带”，黎巴嫩真主党向以北部发射火箭弹响应。
- 沙特阿拉伯：暂停与以色列关系正常化谈判，转向联合阿盟推动联合国安理会紧急会议。
二、俄乌战争关键动态
- 前线战况升级
- ...
- 俄军11月7日对乌克兰东部阿夫杰耶夫卡发动装甲集群攻势，乌方称击毁14辆坦克但防线被部分突破。乌军无人机袭击俄罗斯托夫州炼油厂，引发大规模火灾。
- 核威慑信号：俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫8日警告”不排除在乌使用战术核武器”，北约启动核防御演习反制。
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Will the second – stage cease – fire agreement between Israel and Hamas eventually collapse? Given that Israel has already carried out an air strike in Khan Younis, which led to civilian deaths and was regarded as a violation of the agreement by Hamas. Also, with the surrounding countries having different stances, like Egypt’s cautious approach and Iran’s strong call for economic isolation of Israel, will these factors push the situation towards a new round of large – scale conflict? And in the context of such complex international relations, how will the international community effectively me…