节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利好参考度：6/10


2025年7月29日，高盛集团发布报告，指出美国自7月31日起对铜进口征收50%关税的政策面临重大不确定性。

政策背景方面，美国贸易代表办公室为保护国内铜产业及应对“战略金属安全风险”，突袭式宣布对所有进口铜产品征50%关税，远超市场预期，且除税率外，豁免规则、实施时间表及适用范围等细节模糊。高盛分析师称这是特朗普政府“关税工具箱”的单边主义举措，执行模糊性为变数伏笔。

高盛核心预警，矿产外交或成关税“破局口”。其基本假设初期无差别征税，但两种情况可能改变：一是认定某些海外铜矿资产对制造业供应链“不可替代”，如刚果（金）的Tenke铜钴矿、智利的Escondida铜矿，通过外交施压换取豁免；二是以长期采购协议为筹码，要求矿企优先供应换低关税。“矿产外交”逻辑与2018年钢铝关税豁免类似。

市场影响上，铜价或“先涨后震”，若无ŷ..

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