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位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：7/10
受基数较高以及中美领导人会晤前企业提前出货动力减弱等因素影响，10月中国出口出现近两年来首次下滑。以美元计价，10月出口额同比下降1.1% ，这是自2024年3月以来首次收缩，当时出口惊人下滑7.5%。
此次出口下滑出乎预料，路透社调查显示，经济学家此前预期增长3%，而9月出口曾实现6个月以来最高增幅8.3%。10月进口增长1%，未达预期3.2%的增幅，房地产市场长期低迷和就业市场疲软持续抑制消费需求，9月进口曾大幅增长7.4%。
明世伙伴资产管理公司总裁兼首席经济学家张智威表示，“10月提前出货动力似乎终于消退”，并预计随着贸易限制暂停一年，中国出口将回归正常。
上周，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与中国国家主席习近平在韩国会晤并达成协议，缓和了可能引发全面贸易...
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If China’s overall export still grew by 5.3% until October despite the decline in exports to the US, can the alternative markets be sustained as a long – term driving force for export growth? Given that the trade truce led to a reduction in the actual US tariffs on Chinese goods, why did the 10 – month data still show a significant decline in exports and imports between the two countries? And will the expected fiscal support measures in the first quarter of next year effectively boost domestic demand and offset the weakening export momentum?