位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
商务部2026年1月6日第1号公告即时生效，明确为维护国家安全与防扩散义务，全面禁止向日本军事用户、用于日本军事用途或可能提升其军事实力的最终用户出口两用物项，涵盖兼具民军用（含大规模杀伤性武器相关）的货物、技术及数据，违规组织或个人将依法承担相应法律责任。
日本国防工业对华关键原材料、核心部件及基础技术依赖度较高，管制影响即时深远。核心装备生产受阻：“大鲸”级潜艇特种钢材与稀土永磁、12式反舰导弹特种光纤、战机舰艇高端钛合金等对华供应占比显著，供应中断或致生产线减速停滞，还波及美国导弹系统零部件供应。
军用半导体产业链面临断链风险，中国在军用级芯片、有源相控阵雷达所需尖端半导体材料（如镓、锗）供应占主导，此前管制已致日本进口锐减，此次全面禁止将使雷达、电子战设备等研发..
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