节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：5/10
7月9日，摩根士丹利发布报告指出，2026年全球铝市场供应缺口规模将缩小，预计2027年市场将由短缺转为供应过剩。该行最新预测显示，2026年铝供应缺口为110万吨，较此前预估的180万吨显著收窄；2027年铝市场供应过剩量预计达83万吨，而此前预期为短缺80.7万吨。
摩根士丹利在研报中分析，中东铝产能修复速度加快、印尼铝供应投产提速，叠加多个已落地新增项目逐步释放产能，是导致全球铝供需平衡前景发生重大调整的核心因素。上述供给端增量显著改变了市场预期，推动供需格局从短缺向过剩转变。
价格方面，该行下调了中长期铝价预测：将2027年铝均价预测下调12.6%至每吨2850美元，2028年均价预估下...
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