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本文聚焦铝市场动态，分析现货与期货盘面情况。

周四，电解铝主力10合约呈现高位震荡态势。其开盘价、收盘价、最高价、最低价各有表现，夜盘微幅高开后回落至20700附近。从库存数据看，沪铝最新社库较上周四及周内均有累库，社库上升至60万吨以上，相对历史同期处于中等偏低水平。现货铝锭方面，成交均价下跌，现货对09合约报价贴水。尽管进入八月下旬，旺季预期下下游拿货态度有所改善，但对高价铝仍存抵制情ǻ..

从影响铝价的因素看，美元指数小幅反弹后回落，国内商品市场情绪较前期缓和，回归基本面逻辑，铝价因此遭遇压制。从基本面分析，沪铝产业当下处于淡季，仍在累库周期，不过连续几周周内出现去库。同时，考虑到社库仍处于同期相对低位，且临近“金九银十”传统旺季，需求预期或有抬头。综合来看，预计沪铝盘面短期或表现为区间震荡偏强运行，需关注盘面在前高附近压力。

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