节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：中性参考度：2/10
利多因素累积 铜价或持续走强
近期，沪铜主力合约价格在一定区间运行。展望四季度，受美联储降息预期升温、基本面偏强等利多因素影响，预计沪铜价格走势偏强。
宏观层面，美联储降息预期升温，为大宗商品市场提供了流动性支持。然而，全球贸易摩擦仍存在不确定性，对市场有潜在影响。
供应方面，今年上半年全球铜矿产量同比增长2.7% ，部分国家产量有增有减，如秘鲁、刚果民主共和国和蒙古国产量增长，印尼产量大幅下降36%。全球精炼铜产量与消费量均有所上升，但原料供应增速与冶炼产能增速不匹配，致使铜精矿加工费持续低迷。中国作为最大精炼铜生产国，1 – 7月进口铜精矿量增加，港口库存上升；7月精炼铜出口量创历史新高。
2025年中国铜市需求端呈现结构性分化。传统消费领域需求疲软，像空调零售量虽增长，但9月排产数据下滑，房地产行业复苏缓慢，需求同样不振。而新能源汽车和ǔ..
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