节点：炼铁/粗钢位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10


逻辑转变 广东废钢市场现状 后续还能否继续涨价华南地区独立电炉产能相对较高，电炉利润对废钢价格影响大，尤其是工业发达、废钢资源丰富且电炉产能集中的广东地区。当前淡季，受去产能消息和宏观预期转好影响，电炉利润反弹，钢厂增产，废钢日耗先降后升，淡季减产供需双降逻辑受阻。

价格走势上，截至7月17日，广州市场重废6厚价格2035元/吨，较去年同期降390元/吨。五月底起，广东短流程钢厂大幅下调废钢采购价，累计跌幅170元/吨左右，加工基地跟跌。进入雨季后，加工基地开工困难，废钢供应不足，钢厂因成材销售不佳减产停产，需求下降，价格支撑不足。7月初因宏观政策利好，价格小幅反弹。

日耗方面，据富宝调研，华南本周29家短流程钢厂废钢日耗量约67200吨，较上月增加9600吨。受宏观“反内卷”消息及中美关系缓和等影响，黑色系震荡偏强，..

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