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前段时间，华尔街对美国经济不受特朗普关税影响的期望不断升温，然而最新一批经济数据却打破了这份幻想。不过，部分经济学家此前已对危险信号发出预警，所以并非所有人都对此感到意外。

上周五，美国劳工统计局报告显示，7月新增就业岗位仅7.3万个，远低于市场预期，失业率升至4.2%。同时，劳工统计局大幅修正5月和6月非农数据，两月合计下修25.8万个岗位。这表明美国劳动力市场已疲软一段时间，引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，美股在8月首个交易日大幅下跌，三大指数均跌超1% 。

此前华尔街已察觉到危险信号。Ocean Park Asset Management首席投资官James St. Aubin指出，投资者过度依赖“经济弹性”，这种想法滋生自满情绪，体现在估值过高、信贷息差收紧和风险定价过低。他还提到，政治压力渗入美联储决策过程是风险之一，特朗普等白宫官员数月来要Ʊ..降息。此外，股市投资者将关税视为暂时“减速带”，但关税对企业影响不均衡。

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