节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
铜市场面临前所未有的紧张态势。伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库出现大规模出库后，伦敦铜价飙升至历史新高。交易商担忧全球供应短缺，推动期货价格一度触及每吨11400美元，随后收于11100美元附近。受美国强劲需求及关税投机因素推动，今年以来LME铜基准价已累计上涨超30%。分析师警告称，库存水平已处于极低状态，进一步加剧了本已紧张的市场压力。
供应中断推动铜价飙升。关键产区的生产中断加剧了铜价涨势。艾芬豪矿业（Ivanhoe Mines）因刚果民主共和国卡莫阿-卡库拉（Kamoa-Kakula）矿区遭遇洪水，下调了产量预期。嘉..印尼矿区的停产进一步加剧了供应限制。与此同时，中国矿商在2026年供应谈判中占据优势，尽管需求温和，但仍限制了市场供应。
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