Defying market optimism, Goldman Sachs Group sought to curb enthusiasm over copper’s record-breaking rally, stating the metal’s breakout above $11,000 per tonne is unlikely to persist as global supplies remain adequate. In a client note this week, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham argued that copper’s recent rally centers on “expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals,” adding they do not expect current price levels to hold.

Benchmark Minerals copper analyst Albert Mackenzie echoed this view. “When an all-time high is broken, it tends to pull back or slow down,” he noted in an interview, but pointed out copper has seen consecutive months of record-setting sessions lately, continuing to rise despite typical post-high trends.

The tempered expectations come amid copper hitting a new record high of $11,540 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by global supply squeeze fears as the metal is shipped to the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs. These concerns intensified after trading house Mercuria Energy Group warned of “extreme” dislocations in the current market.

Mercuria’s head of metals Kostas Bintas stated during a Shanghai industry event last month that growing recognition exists that ongoing U.S.-bound flows could fuel shortages in China and other markets even amid weakening d...

Goldman analysts dispelled shortage concerns, acknowledging supply drain leading to a higher copper price forecast for the first half of next year but noting critically low inventories outside the U.S. could be mitigated via higher regional premiums and tighter LME spreads. They wrote that while the 2026 surplus of 160,000 tons moves the market closer to balance, no global copper shortage is expected soon, with prices constricted to a $10,000-$11,000 per ton range next year.

Copper has a history of unmet lofty predictions; though 2025 major mine disruptions tightened supply, global demand growth softened recently despite clean energy sector strength. Goldman forecasts no global shortage until at least 2029, with 2025 demand still ~500,000 tons short of supply. A key factor is China—its fourth-quarter consumption could slump nearly 8% year-on-year.

Benchmark’s Mackenzie also doubts the sustainability of the rally built on supply tightness narratives. “I don’t necessarily think the narrative is entirely correct,” he said, suggesting current fundamentals do not justify the exuberance driving the price surge.