节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
今年以来铜价表现强势，虽受海外宏观利空干扰，但仅产生短期影响。从盘面走势看，一季度铜价完成首轮上涨，4月中旬第二轮上涨行情更为流畅，年末阶段加速上行。
上半年海外宏观扰动频发，美国关税政策反复多变，市场对美联储降息预期持续下降，铜价金融属性表现显著。美国“对等关税”出台后，全球风险资产暴跌，有色板块同步受挫，铜价随之下行。5月后贸易摩擦逐步降温，市场开始关注关税带来的输入性通胀压力，这一因素显著影响对美联储降息节奏的判断。截至12月初，美联储仅在9月、10月各降息25基点，本轮降息周期累计降息150基点。
原料供应紧张。2025年铜精矿供应难言宽松。据SMM数据，1月24日当周起铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）转为负值且持续扩大，4月末降至-40美元/干吨。下半年海外矿山运营不稳定因素增加，如智利地震致Codelco旗下El Teniente铜矿事故、自由港Grasberg地下矿湿性矿料涌出ĺ..
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