节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
受冲突、制裁及产量激增等因素扰乱全球供应链影响，全球海运大宗商品运费正呈现罕见年末上涨态势，颠覆今年大宗商品贸易格局。其中原油海运主要航线日均费用增幅达467%，液化天然气及铁矿石运输费率分别增长四倍多和两倍多，而通常年末需求疲软运费会回落。当前船舶运输时间延长助推运费飙升，航运高管预计市场供应紧张局面至少持续至明年初。
全球关键航线地缘冲突加剧推高运输成本，红海局势紧张迫使部分船只绕道非洲，黑海无人机袭击事件震动航运市场。前往乌克兰港口航程的战争风险保险费率从船舶价值0.4%升至0.5%ϼ..战略决策持谨慎态度，全球造船市场新船造价昂贵。
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