位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：5/10
美国知名投行Stifel首席股票策略师Barry Bannister最新预测显示，若2026年美国经济保持向好，标普500指数将上涨9%；但一旦经济衰退来袭，该基准指数或迅速下跌20%。他在报告中指出，美联储正放松政策，但衰退风险并非微不足道，不过此情景并非Stifel及华尔街任何一家大行对明年的基本预期——美联储刚上调2026年经济增长预测，Stifel认为衰退发生概率约25%。
Bannister同时强调，若经济出现问题，美股仍可能经历艰难时期。劳动力市场呈现不稳定特征：失业率与裁员人数上升，新增就业机会稀缺。若就业市场持续严重恶化，消费者或集体缩减支出——美国68%的GDP来自消费支出，这一变化将对经济构成显著冲击。当前股票估值处于历史高位，或加剧投资者风险：二战以来经济衰退期间，股市回调中位数为20%...
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