节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：6/10
原铝日均产量保持稳定，即期冶炼利润因电解铝价格上涨有所回升；11月行业平均成本16057元/吨、最高成本18782元/吨。消费端，国内现货贴水系价格上升打压需求所致；下游龙头企业开工率61.8%，环比下降0.1%；铝锭铝棒去库1.65万吨，显示价格上涨背景下消费仍具韧性；内外价差收窄，国内外供应格局转变或扭转价差偏低局面。
氧化铝现货价格回落，周度运行产能环比增加，进口窗口持续打开，过剩格局暂难扭转；总库存延续增长，电解铝厂内部仓库处于高位；11月全国氧化铝加权成本2772元/吨，晋豫地区完全成本2874元/吨，当前现货价下亏损幅度有限。基差扩大带动部分仓单成交，未来两个月到期仓单量较大，需更多现货成交拉低月均价、扩大亏损以推动实质性减产...明年上半年新增产能充足，供需压力仍显著。
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