节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:3/10


现货交投转弱,价减仓调整【机构评论】

昨日铜价日内大幅减仓,夜盘价格高开低走陷入调整节奏,现货贴水扩大社库继续累增

宏观层面,美联储如期降息25bp并重启扩表,尽管明年降息预期仅一次,但美联储面临主席换届,美国经济韧性或推动通胀预期回升,利好铜价。近期美股科技板块调整,对铜价形成拖累。CSPT小组倡导联合减产铜矿冶炼产能10%以扭转加工ȴ..冶炼供给收缩预期加强,成为淡季基本面核心逻辑。海外市场,美国持续高溢价采购精铜导致主产区运往其他地区的长单升水大幅上调,C-L价差缩窄至260美元,LME铜现货升水维持20美元,挤仓风险未完全解除,明年供需紧张预期仍存。

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