节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：6/10
铜方面，宏观层面美国失业率超预期上升、通胀超预期回落，增强降息预期但经济韧性进一步削弱，1月降息预期略有升高但未超30%，需关注降息政策演变。基本面长单TC敲定0美元/吨，与今年6月谈判结果一致，较2025年供应长单大幅下滑。国内淡季效应加深，现货转为深度贴水，期限结构呈Contango，价格高位需求不振，现货贴水出货但社库持续累增。海外C-L价差维持200美元左右，库存搬运暂缓但COMEX铜库存继续增加，LME铜挤仓担忧下降，不过明年供需紧张预期仍存。上周铜价大幅减仓回落..
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