节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:3/10
受2026年全球铜市场供应趋紧担忧推动,国际铜价延续12月以来强劲涨势,攀升至每吨12000美元上方历史新高。投资者大举加仓铜市,因市场预期大量铜正加急运往美国(抢在潜在进口关税落地前备货),或导致全球其他地区采购方货源紧缺。伦敦金属交易所铜价全年涨幅已达约40%,创2009年以来最大年度涨幅;本周三伦铜一度大涨1.8%至每吨12282美元历史峰值,截至北京时间当日14点35分回落至12243美元。
国投安信期货首席有色金属分析师..宏观经济增长相对企稳等多重因素,共同助推铜价年末大幅上涨。短期经历小幅调整后,铜价有望在明年消费旺季前后延续上行走势。2025年伦敦金属交易所上市的六大基本金属均实现年度上涨,铝价累计上涨近16%,主因中国铝产能增速放缓且全球其他地区能源成本飙升收紧供应;锌价受主力矿山停产影响全年涨幅达5%;印尼严打境内非法锡矿开采致供应收缩,推动锡价全年大涨49%。
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