节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：8/10
美国11月失业率超预期，CPI数据低于预期；日本加息25BP符合市场预期。短期宏观数据落地后，市场围绕美联储1月降息概率及下一任主席人选展开预期博弈。
国内电解铝运行产能延续复产趋势，整体呈现大稳小增特征，后续增长空间有限。需求端，铝加工周度开工率环比微幅下滑，行业进入淡季，叠加铝价高位运行，下游观望态度显著。沪铝最新社会库存61.2万吨，较上周累库5.1万吨（周中累库2.4万吨），社库重回60万吨以上，相对历史同期偏高且高于去年同期水平。..
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