节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
铜价走势由宏观降息预期博弈主导，周内英伟达财报后股价大跌触发避险需求，美联储安抚市场后12月降息预期有所抬升。数据端显示美联储降息态度犹豫，就业数据表现一般但通胀韧性逐步显现，后续仍围绕降息预期博弈。基本面方面，铜价呈震荡态势，现货采购情绪平淡，下周需关注长单谈判影响；供给端Grasberg铜矿有复产消息，但冶炼利润环境恶劣，月底长单谈判难度较大。四季度消费同比不及预期，旺季效应未兑现，海外COMEX铜库存持续累增导致LME库存难以累库。盘面减仓至52万手水平，持仓回落，当前宏观预期重回博弈阶段，需关注实际经济预期及风险情绪变化，预计铜价震荡区间85500-87000。
铝价前期受美联储鹰派发言冲击，市场降息概率大幅下降，沪铝多头止盈离场致价格大幅回调。当前美联储内部对12Ɯ..
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