节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
美联储周一释放鸽派信号，12月降息预期骤升至80%以上。电解铝基本面方面，上周铝水比例小幅下降，铝价回调后下游采购积极性提升，短期基本面矛盾不大。宏观面利好支撑铝价，沪铝预计高位震荡，后续需重点关注降息概率变化。
氧化铝仍延续过剩逻辑，国内产能维持高位，过剩格局明显。进口窗口打开背景下，前期进口氧化铝陆续到港，新疆地区库容已基本满额，后续大量仓单到期将进一步加剧供ɜ..
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