Indonesia Nickel Industry Forum (FINI) estimates that the country’s production of Class 1 and Class 2 nickel metal will reach 2.46–2.5 million tons in 2025, up from the 2024 actual output of 2.2 million tons. FINI Chairman Arif Perdana Kusumah notes that Indonesia requires approximately 300 million tons of nickel ore to achieve this metal production volume. He adds that Indonesia’s installed nickel processing and refining (smelter) capacity stands at 2.8 million tons, comprising 2.3 million tons from rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) pyrometallurgical smelters and 500,000 tons from high pressure acid leach (HPAL) hydrometallurgical facilities.

“Considering utilization rates and other operational factors, Indonesia’s nickel production is projected to hit around 2.5 million tons of Class 1 and 2 nickel by end-2025,” Arif stated in a January 3, 2026 interview. He further revealed that 2025 nickel ore production is estimated to only reach 82%–85% of the 300 million tons approved in the 2025 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). As a result, Indonesia imported 15 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines to Halmahera, North Maluku, last year to offset the supply deficit.

Arif expects nickel metal production to rise to 2.7 million tons in 2026, driven by expanded smelter capacity—particularly from near-completion HPAL projects. This would require 340–350 million tons of ore, an increase of 40–50 million tons from 2025. If 2026 ore production is capped...