节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：中性参考度：2/10


宏观方面，美国11月失业率超预期、CPI数据低于预期，日本加息25BP符合预期，短期宏观数据落地后，市场围绕美联储1月降息概率及下一任主席人选展开预期博弈。

产业层面，国内电解铝运行产能延续复产，呈现大稳小增态势且空间有限；需求端，铝加工周度开工率环比微幅下滑，进入淡季叠加铝价高位，下游观望态度明显；沪铝最新社库61.2万吨，较上周累库5.1万吨，社库重回60万吨以上，相对历史同期偏高且高于..

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