节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
2026年锂价上涨速度或将超出预期。模块化、可融资的储能系统（ESS）为锂盐创造了新的结构性需求。12月9日碳酸锂价格为每吨11600美元，较2022年末高点仍低约80%。中国电池制造商提高开工率，推动广州期货交易所碳酸锂期货价格在11月逼近每吨10万元。期货价格走高反映现货供应趋紧及下游需求增长。与此同时，今年早些时候锂云母产能重启及盐湖产能扩张暂时缓解了市场压力。
2025年全球储能系统新增装机量预计为273吉瓦时，2026年有望达到359吉瓦时。仅中国就将贡献182吉瓦时，凸显其在模块化储能部署中的主导地位。相较于进度较慢的电网基础设施项目，储能系统安装周期较短（有时仅需81天），加速了锂的需求增ɕ..镍电池多30%至50%，提升了材料消耗。
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