节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
2026年首个交易日周五，伦敦金属交易所（LME）多数金属价格上涨。三个月期铜当日上涨0.4%，报每吨12515美元，本周累计上涨3.29%，此前一周涨幅2.95%。2025年伦铜上涨42%，创下16年来最大年度涨幅，主要受主要铜矿生产中断引发供应紧张担忧，以及人工智能和能源转型推动需求增长影响。供应端过去一年全球多地矿山事故频发，印尼、智利、刚果（金）等生产中断和安全事件压制原矿供应；市场预计美国2026年年中或对精炼铜征收关税，导致大量铜提前运往美国，引发世界其他地区供应短缺担忧。分析指出，去年底铜价快速拉升既反映真实供需紧张，也体现资金对铜“长期稀缺性”重新定价，其在能源转型、电气化及高端制造中的不可替代性，使其在供应紧张周期易获溢价À..
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