节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
政府计划2026年削减镍矿产量，将推动印尼镍矿进口量增加，以满足国内高压酸浸（HPAL）及回转窑电炉（RKEF）技术冶炼厂的原料需求。据印尼镍业论坛（FINI）数据，2025年印尼镍冶炼厂极限产能约280万吨镍，其中RKEF产能230万吨、HPAL产能50万吨；考虑产能利用率及运营因素，2025年底印尼1级和2级镍实际产量约250万干吨，对应需3亿湿吨镍矿石。
2025年印尼镍矿实际产量仅达年度计划批准总量的82%-85%，国内供应短缺需从菲律宾进口约1500万吨镍矿，主要运往哈尔马赫拉岛或北马鲁古省弥补缺口。今年减产已使镍矿进口增加约5000万湿吨，大部分来自菲律宾，部分来自所罗门群岛、新喀里多尼亚等地；镍矿进口是供需..
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