节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
电解铝方面，美国就业数据新增岗位不及预期但失业率下降，预计美联储本月维持利率不变。委内瑞拉等地缘政治风险抬升资源品溢价，有色金属整体情绪偏强。供应端国内及印尼新增产能持续释放增量，澳洲Tomago铝厂存在2028年电力合同到期无法续约风险。消费端周度铝加工开工率维持低位，周末光伏取消出口退税政策出台；库存端铝锭较节前增5.4万吨至71.4万吨，铝棒增3.05万吨至16.95万吨。整体铝价受宏观环境与资金轮动主导快速上行，光伏退税取消或...00元/吨。
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