节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：7/10
【盘面回顾】 隔夜相关品种价格走势分化：沪铝主力合约收盘价环比微幅下行，伦铝同步走弱；氧化铝价格环比上行，铸造铝合金价格小幅调整。
【核心观点】 铝：昨日沪铝主力合约减仓下行，主要受白银价格下行引发的资金流出影响，宏观基本面变化有限。前期判断的底部买盘支撑效应显著，铝锭现货成交活跃度提升，盘面回落过程中下游逢低备货需求增强，现货采销表现积极。夜盘低开后震荡上行，整体呈现区间波动特征。沪铝短期或将维持震荡格局，支撑区间及卖权参与或区间内逢低建仓策略值得关注。
【核心观点】 氧化铝：受新疆铝厂采购价格调整、铁路运输成本上升、局部产能检修及下游铝厂节前备货需Ʊ..我们认为此次价格反弹不构成趋势反转信号，中长期偏弱格局未改，短期扰动因素增多，需关注潜在政策传闻影响，建议情绪平复后参与空头策略或卖权交易。
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