节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:5/10
全球库存持续回升,铜价减仓降波震荡【机构评论】
当前铜价锚定的两大核心逻辑中,黄金保值属性维持高位运行,金铜比持续支撑铜价在10万附近震荡;而美国经济虹吸效应有所弱化,COMEX铜远月高升水格局环比回落,全球库存突破100万吨,C-L价差(伦敦与纽约价差)由顺差转为逆转,铜价上行动能承压。
从宏观维度看,中国有色工业协会提出加强铜战略储备,探索商业储备模式,该举措短期利多有限,长期将改善铜矿紧张与精铜过剩的供需矛盾;美联储新任提名主席落地后事件预期平稳,后续需重点关注降息节奏变化,美国经济韧性仍存(通胀数据暂未超预期、失业率回落),但美元回流压力阶段性缓解,对非美市场定价的虹吸效应边 ..
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