节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
高盛认为，黄金价格历史性上涨非贵金属独立行情，而是各国政府与投资者大宗商品策略广泛转变的组成部分。近期各国央行买盘推动金价飙升，政府以之对冲地缘政治及金融风险，同时“保险型”策略正渗透其他大宗商品市场。供应链中断及粮食能源危机后，政策制定者更重视关键材料获取安全，加征关税、出口管制、支持本土生产及建立战略储备等举措，重塑大宗商品市场结构，使价格对冲击更敏感，市场从单一全球供需平衡转向区域化分割体系，价格波动加剧风险上升。
以铜为例，2025年全球铜供应原预期过剩，但美国政策抽走部分国际供应，非美地区全球基准价格形成市场趋紧。客户..
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