节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：8/10
今年初铁矿石市场呈过山车走势。Mysteel数据显示，全国47港进口铁矿库存约1.7亿吨（两年新高，环比+0.8%），日均疏港量357.58万吨（环比+近3%）。1月中上旬价格冲高至109美元/吨（15个月新高），后回落；过去一月跌7.72%、同比跌5.89%，2月6日自2025年8月来首次跌破100美元/吨，新加坡61%品位矿期货一度跌至99.35美元/吨。
价格先坚挺后回落核心源于供需博弈。1月初受季节性补库预期、商品做多情绪、中品矿库存紧及中矿集团谈判支撑，价格上行；月中西芒杜项目首船20万吨矿石抵港，全产业链打通；月底宏观政策加码及钢厂冬储预期反复发酵，给予底部支撑，但高库存与弱需求持续压制上行空间。
1月市场确立供应宽松、需求谨慎格局，海外高到港量推港口库..
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