节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:4/10


截至2月20日当周,南美扁平材进口价格普遍上行。受巴西对中国钢材反倾销措施升级影响,区域贸易格局呈结构性重构,中国资源实际已退出拉美市场,当前报价主要来自韩国、越南及日本等替代供应方。本周评估的南美板材进口价格如下:热轧卷(CFR主要港口)530-560美元/吨;冷轧卷涨20美元/吨至610-630美元/吨;热浸镀锌卷涨10-30美元/吨至660-700美元/吨;镀铝锌卷涨20美元/吨至770-820美元/吨;厚板持稳于540-555美元/吨,但因五年期高额反倾销税生效,该品种流动性显著受限。

市场参与者普遍将此轮反倾销落地视为决定性转折点。贸易商反馈,尽管对反倾销措施早有预期,但税率超预期高企导致中国资源完全丧失竞争力,即便中国供应商降价亦无法覆盖关税成本。当前针对厚板、预涂板、冷轧卷及涂层钢的累积效应,叠加2026年中期拟扩围的热轧卷调查,使得中国材料在巴西乃至整个南美市场缺乏经济可行性。消息人士指出,中国来..

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