节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
BMO资本市场分析师指出，钨供应短缺可在价格进一步飙升前得到缓解，但全球库存仍处于临界低位。过去一年钨价已上涨五倍，中国供应趋紧及多年投资不足持续挤压市场。
BMO分析师George Heppel和Helen Amos认为，行业忽视了结构性供应风险，包括矿石品位下降、环保管控趋严及矿业投资疲软。因此，2026年市场预计将再度出现短缺，除非新供应快速释放，否则紧张局面将持续。
钨供应短缺可在价格进一步飙升前缓解，但需协调供应响应。中国掌控约75%的全球钨产量，因矿石品位下滑及监管收紧，产量增长停滞；同时，中国限制两用钨产品出口。2025年末，偏钨酸铵（APT）部分出口量降至零，Fastmarkets数ƍ..00美元/吨飙升至约1775美元/吨，反映供应链深度结构性压力。
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