节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：中性参考度：2/10
欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩警告，若中东冲突旷日持久且区域油气供应持续下降，欧元区或面临通胀大幅飙升与产出急剧下滑的双重冲击。他指出，能源价格跃升将对通胀形成短期上行压力，同时对经济增长构成负面效应。
上周末美伊冲突升级后，阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、伊拉克等中东多国受波及。周一卡塔尔能源公司发布声明称，因拉斯拉凡工业城与梅赛义德工业城运营设施遭军事袭击，已停止液化天然气（LNG）及相关产品生产；前一日伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令顾问表示，伊方将打击所有试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只，欧亚天然气价格快速拉升，卡塔尔“断供”进一步推涨气价。
莱恩强调，中东冲击的严重程度取决于冲突范围与持续时间，若引发金融市场风险重定价，影响或被进一步放大，欧洲央行将密切关注事态发展。该行2023年12月发布的情景分析显示，若冲突导致能源供应持续下降并扰乱Ō..
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