节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
LME铝价在巴林铝业集团遭遇不可抗力事件后，创下2022年5月以来最高记录，日内一度涨超4%。巴林铝业宣布遭遇不可抗力，将影响其供应合同履行。
据ALD和SMM数据，2025年中东区域氧化铝产能约450万吨/年，占全球2%；电解铝产能约692万吨/年，占全球9%；伊朗电解铝产能约62万吨/年，占全球0.8%。若周边能源基建遇袭，上述产能存在减停产风险。AI抢电与供给扰动叙事强化..
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