节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
宏观层面，美伊冲突扩大化触发市场震荡，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡要道扰动加剧，恐慌情绪与通胀预期共振，叠加全球金融市场流动性担忧升温及美元快速反弹，铜价承压回落。库存端，LME铜库存维持257675吨；SHFE铜仓单周度增加4624吨至300505吨。需求端需持续关注节后下游企业开工恢复情况。
短期维度，宏观风险与基...铜价仍存在二次回调风险。但从长期逻辑看，若金融市场完成风险定价、内外累库周期趋于尾声，叠加中美释放积极信号的宏观环境，市场风险偏好或再度回升，策略上可维系逢低布局思路。
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