节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：5/10
印尼依赖中东供应75%硫磺的镍生产商，或因海湾航运受地区冲突干扰加剧而减产。硫磺用于生产硫酸，后者是镍精炼和铜加工中从矿石浸出金属的关键原料，部分非洲铜生产商也可能面临类似问题。美国地质调查局数据显示，去年中东硫磺产量达8387万吨，占全球24%左右。但美以对伊朗发动袭击、德黑兰扩大报复行动，导致霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，正威胁供应收紧。
咨询机构CRU分析师彼得·哈里森指出，全球镍产量超50%的印尼，约四分之三硫磺从进口。印尼镍主要用于生产不锈钢。印尼两家中资精炼厂消息人士（因未获授权公开发言而匿名）称，高压酸浸（HPAL）镍厂的硫磺库存平均仅够消耗1-2个月。Project Blue分析师马可·马丁斯表示，冲突爆发前，因价格大幅上涨，硫磺成本已占HPAL厂运营成本的约一半；若无法找到替代供应，下月起工厂或被迫减产。
供应争夺方面，印尼镍精炼厂、非洲铜矿山将与全球Ō..
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