节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：7/10
3月6日，分析师指出，海湾地区冲突对航运的干扰持续加剧，严重依赖中东硫供应的印尼镍生产商或面临减产压力。印尼镍生产商所需硫供应中，75%来自中东地区，硫是生产硫酸的核心原料，而硫酸对镍精炼及铜加工环节至关重要，非洲部分铜生产商也面临类似供应风险。
美国地质调查局数据显示，去年中东硫产量达8387万吨，约占全球总产量的24%。但受美国、以色列对伊朗袭击及德黑兰报复行动影响，霍尔木兹海峡航运中断风险或挤压硫供应。目前，高压酸浸（HPAL）镍厂的硫库存平均仅能维持1-2个月的消费量。
Project Blue分析师Marc...相关工厂可能在下个月启动减产。同时，印尼镍精炼厂与非洲铜矿商将争抢硫供应，二者还需面临全球化肥制造商的竞争——后者也在寻求中东硫的替代来源。
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