节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：中性参考度：2/10
上周铜价呈震荡走势，地缘冲突加剧引发国际能源成本骤升，市场风险偏好下降、滞胀担忧抬头，铜价受金价联动影响重心回落。当前铜价核心驱动逻辑均有所弱化，短期不确定性快速增加。地缘冲突持续导致AI产业叙事受阻，叠加美元指数回升、金价回调，进一步施压铜价；从经济周期维度看，美国经济韧性较强，国内经济需确认止跌企稳拐点，四月或为重要宏观交易窗口。
关键矿产博弈下的紧缺预Ɯ..C-L价差反转形成短期拖累。近期关税政策变化导致美铜现货价格低于LME铜价，美铜虹吸效应弱化，对铜价构成短期压制。
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