节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：6/10
伊朗、以色列、美国地缘冲突升级，直接影响印尼石化产业。印尼约70%的石化原料（含石脑油）依赖中东供应，霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻及中东当地生产设施受损，已引发下游产业供应短缺风险。
印尼烯烃、芳烃及塑料工业协会（Inaplas）秘书长指出，石脑油是制造手套、轮胎、塑料瓶、汽车零件等产品的核心原料，若冲突持续，中东供应或中断长达半年。部分企业已暂停对外销售以保障国内需求，甚至宣布不可抗力条款。
企业正尝试从非洲、美国寻求替代货源，但全球需求高企导致货源趋紧，且亚洲炼厂难以提供同等品质的轻石脑油。此外，印尼多数老旧石化工厂技术单一，无法..
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