节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利空参考度：7/10
印尼镍矿开采行业协会（APNI）预警，2026年镍矿生产配额调降将引发国内冶炼厂镍矿供应缺口风险。能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）2026年工作计划与预算（RKAB）显示，镍矿生产配额划定为2.6亿至2.7亿吨，较2025年3.79亿吨大幅下滑。APNI秘书长指出，2026年国内冶炼厂镍矿刚性需求达3.8亿至4亿吨，配额与需求缺口约1.3亿吨。
为填补缺口，冶炼厂需依赖进口，但进口渠道受限。当前印尼仅能从菲律宾进口镍矿，菲律宾全年镍矿产量约50亿吨，其中2.8亿至3亿吨已与中国签订不可撤销合同，可供应印尼的份额极为有限，暂无其他替代供应来源，进口无法覆盖需求缺口。
此外，部...
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