节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
昨日铜价承压震荡，夜盘回落至10万元附近后反弹。在地缘冲突缓和、油价下跌的背景下，铜价出现阶段性反弹，但当前支撑铜价的两条核心逻辑均有所弱化，短期市场不确定性快速上升。地缘冲突加剧导致AI产业链相关叙事受阻，叠加美元指数回升、黄金价格回落，进一步施压铜价；从经济周期维度看，美国经济韧性较强，国内经济则需确认止跌企稳的拐点，四月或成为关键的宏观交易窗口。
关键矿产资源博弈下的铜精矿紧缺预期尚未完全兑现，全球铜显性库存加速累增的趋势仍...COMEX-LME价差反转对铜价形成短期拖累。近期关税政策变化导致美铜现货价格低于LME铜价，美铜对全球铜资源的虹吸效应有所弱化，也对铜价构成短期压制。
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