节点:下游(终端消费/应用)位置:下游情绪:中性参考度:2/10


近两周,美伊冲突波及全球能源咽喉霍尔木兹海峡,国际油价大幅飙升。与此同时,为保障中东冲突期间全球原油供应充足,各方已做出迄今为止最强有力的应对努力。

然而分析人士警告,除非霍尔木兹海峡重新开放,所有旨在压低当前约100美元/桶油价的举措均属治标不治本。瑞穗证券分析师Robert Yawger指出,霍尔木兹海峡关闭每日造成约2000万桶原油供应缺口,无替代选项;其他抑制油价的努力均无效,因海峡对全球经济的重要性具有压倒性。

他补充,海峡关闭无法用权宜之计替代,如本周国际能源署(IEA)历史性释放紧急石油储备,或特朗普政府考虑豁免琼斯法案。IEA自身承认,虽储备释放短期有助,但军事冲突解决前仅为临时方案。

OPIS首席石油分析师Denton Cinqueg...只要霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭,释放战略储备或豁免琼斯法案等政策均为权宜之计。他还称,各方遏制高油价的措施多收效甚微,海峡开放延迟越久,市场复苏耗时越长。

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