节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：8/10
美东时间周五，美股三大指数集体收跌，周线同步走弱，罗素2000小型股指数创年内新低。本周原油价格剧烈震荡主导市场情绪，投资者聚焦中东冲突对全球石油供应的潜在冲击。Murphy & Sylvest高级财富顾问Paul Nolte指出，能源市场近期波动幅度堪比加密货币历史剧烈时段，且市场情绪化程度高，理性决策难度大，建议观望等待局势稳定。
原油价格盘中反复后收涨，近月期货结算价报98.71美元/桶，日内涨3.11%。尽管特朗普暂时放松对俄石油制裁以缓解供应担忧，但周五其“下周对伊朗实施严厉打击”的表态，叠加冲突蔓延至黎巴嫩等多国、伊朗持续封锁霍尔木兹海峡，以及美军增派两栖戒备群及海军陆战队的消息，令局势降温预期落空。
美国商务部大幅下调四季度GDP增速，经济指标整体疲软——个人消费支出（PCE）显示美联储核心通胀指标无明显变化，耐用品需求亦显疲软。但油价飙升加剧通胀风险，市场预期美联储下周货币政策会议将维持关键利率不变，近期降息概率下降。Spartan Capital Securities首席经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，通胀高企下..
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