节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：5/10
有色金属价格波动加剧 地缘政治紧张冲击供应
近年来，全球市场有色金属价格波动显著加剧，市场参与者正密切关注地缘政治风险及供应中断事件。Cohen集团执行副总裁乔尔·福格尔（Joel Fogel）指出，波动率仍是有色金属交易的核心特征，而近期地缘政治动态进一步放大了价格波动幅度。最新紧张局势源于美以与伊朗的持续冲突，已导致霍尔木兹海峡附近航运线路受阻——该海峡是连接波斯湾与公海的关键通道，这使得金属交易商开始评估铝及其他工业金属的潜在供应风险。
中东在全球铝生产中占据重要地位，海湾合作委员会去年原铝产量约620万吨，为中国以外第二大供应区域。Marex分析师埃德·迈尔（Ed Meir）预计，中东铝产量占全球约10%，区域供应中断将迅速传导至国际市场。生产商已因能源...
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