节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利好参考度：8/10
基于能源转型稳步推进基准情景，现有锂供应项目难满足2030年代中期需求，凸显锂价值链持续投资必要性。受新采矿产能、精炼基建及区域供应链需求驱动，锂相关投资预计2030-2034年达峰。全球锂市正处关键转折点，电动汽车（EV）与储能双引擎推动需求增长，市场收紧共识已达成。2026年以来全球多地锂价上涨，或预示新一轮超级周期启动。
供应短缺或早于预期。伍德麦肯兹《能源转型之锂展望》显示，净零排放情景下2028年起锂供应短缺并持续至中叶，2050年缺口850万吨；稳步推进情景2029年缺口，2050年670万吨。投行共识明确市场收紧：摩根士丹利预测2026年碳酸锂当量短缺8万吨，瑞银2.2万吨。废旧电池回收年增13...
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