节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：5/10
据矿业周刊报道，咨询机构伍德麦肯锡在《2026年金属和采矿业展望》中指出，地缘政治不确定性、放缓但不可逆转的能源转型及持续资本纪律将主导今年全球金属矿业走势。该机构全球铜市场研究主管彼得·施密茨表示，2026年行业复杂性凸显，全面金属驱动发展时代临近，但演变速度受新地缘政治现实及谨慎资本配置制约。
报告显示，全球关键矿产贸易环境将受南北半球重大政治经济变化影响。美国11月中期选举后财政政策出台难度上升，关税等政策引发的市场波动或进一步加剧商品市场不确定性。尽管政治阻力存在，全球能源转型已达关键节点且持续推进，不受选举周期影响，但伍德麦肯锡将基本气候预测从2.5℃上调至2.6℃，反映全球脱碳进程放缓。
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